Um longo Inverno
Metade do PIB de 2007 para salvar sistema financeiro americano
U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit
By Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government is prepared to provide more than $7.76 trillion on behalf of American taxpayers after guaranteeing $306 billion of Citigroup Inc. debt yesterday. The pledges, amounting to half the value of everything produced in the nation last year, are intended to rescue the financial system after the credit markets seized up 15 months ago.
The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis.
When Congress approved the TARP on Oct. 3, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged the need for transparency and oversight. Now, as regulators commit far more money while refusing to disclose loan recipients or reveal the collateral they are taking in return, some Congress members are calling for the Fed to be reined in.
As principais economias industriais do planeta caminham paulatinamente para uma prolongada deflação, com as respectivas taxas de juro a tender para zero. Entre Janeiro e Fevereiro de 2009 as taxas de juro de referência dos bancos centrais cairão para 2,5% na Eurolândia, 1% ou menos nos Estados Unidos, e 0,1-0,15% no Japão (1). Os países produtores de matérias primas, pelo contrário, verão os respectivos juros subir, fixando a liquidez própria e desviando grandes fluxos de capital na direcção das suas economias.
Ao contrário do que pensa a Esquerda leviana, aumentar as responsabilidades financeiras dos Estados, das empresas e das pessoas, na situação de endividamento estrutural em que se deixaram cair os Estados Unidos e a Europa, prolongando a ilusão de um crescimento à custa do consumo, não só não vai resolver os problemas, como irá agravá-los.
No quadro da imprevisibilidade extrema actual, a que se vêm somar os efeitos catastróficos das alterações climáticas, as prioridades devem ser outras:
- regular drástica e imediatamente os mercados financeiros;
- dar prioridade absoluta à eficiência energética;
- restabelecer a prevalência do capital natural sobre o capital resultante da exploração
- reinventar os paradigmas de crescimento;
- criar emprego produtivo
As tentativas insistentes de tapar com dinheiros públicos o buraco negro dos Derivados confeccionados pelas Donas Brancas que dominaram a especulação mundial das últimas duas décadas, são não apenas imorais, mas também inúteis (2), colocando em risco a estabilidade política de inúmeros países, e a própria paz mundial.
O simples facto de Portugal inscrever no seu Orçamento de Estado a possibilidade de hipotecar mais de 10% do PIB no saneamento de instituições bancárias e financeiras à beira do colapso, em vez de apostar na destruição criativa dos especuladores, em linha com o tipo de recomendações que os neo-liberais gostam de sugerir aos sectores produtivos tradicionais, revela até que ponto podemos estar a cavar a nossa própria sepultura.
A proporção dos Derivados na Liquidez Total sugere claramente que a única saída possível é cortar as ligações existentes entre a economia real e o vórtice destrutivo da economia especulativa gerado pela bolha do Subprime. A primeira deve ser saneada e merecer novas estratégias e novos financiamentos. A segunda, por não passar duma ficção informática, deve ser apagada, pura e simplesmente, do sistema! O senhor Stanley Ho não salva da ruína os jogadores que apostam no seu casino. A mesma receita deve ser aplicada, naturalmente, aos especuladores de Wall Street e do Banco Privado.
- China downturn deepens, European rate cut sought
Thu Nov 27, 2008 4:38pm EST (REUTERS) — By Keith Weir
LONDON (Reuters) — China warned on Thursday that its economic downturn could threaten stability as pressure grew on the European Central Bank to make a big cut in interest rates to help contain the global financial crisis.
“The euro zone is in a deep recession, upping the pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates further,” said Christoph Weil, economist at Commerzbank. “We envisage a first move next week on a scale of 75 basis points to 2.5 percent.”
Central banks around the globe have slashed interest rates to try to ease the flow of credit and restart stalled economies.
Economic sentiment in Europe’s single currency zone hit 15-year lows in November and inflation expectations plunged, boosting the case for a big rate cut from the European Central Bank next week.
Mizuno Opposed Bank of Japan’s October Rate Cut
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) — Bank of Japan board member Atsushi Mizuno voted against the Oct. 31 decision to cut interest rates, saying the central bank should focus on measures to promote the flow of money through the financial system, minutes show.
“Further deterioration in the economy will require more action, irrespective of Mizuno’s stance,” said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo. Adachi predicts the key rate will be lowered to 0.1 percent or 0.15 percent in February.
- Major US banks worse than Japan’s zombies?
Why aren’t massive expansions of banking reserves by the Fed working this time?
By FRED, iTulip Administrator, in iTulip (2008-12-02).
Back in September 2008 posted this chart that shows the Fed vastly expanding reserves for member banks. We show the expansion as a percentage rather than an absolute change because the numbers are so large as to be meaningless. The real story is the proportion relative to past crisis — real, as in the case of 9/11, or imagined, as in the case of Y2K:
iTulip: What do you make of the extraordinary levels of bank reserves that the Federal Reserve is pumping into the Federal Reserve System, now at more than 600% higher than November 2007 levels?
Dr. B: Think of the commercial banks that take loans from the Federal Reserve banking system as a person and the money that flows through them as the blood in a person’s body. Now think of that person as injured. When he suffers a severe injury and loses blood, the Fed gives him an emergency money transfusion. You can see in your chart below the money transfusions in late 1999 just before the end of the year, due to the Y2K scare — false, as it turns out — and in 2001 after 9/11. Some believe that the withdrawal of reserves in mid 2000 caused the market decline that led to the recession of 2001.
Dr. B: After the injury is operated on and healed and the patient is producing his own money again, the money that was added earlier by the Fed’s transfusion is drained back out. As you can see from your chart above, the transfusions usually take two to six months and typically six months or after the crisis is over are gradually withdrawn over a period of several months to return total money in the system to pre-crisis levels.”
iTulip: That makes sense. But why has the Fed this time had to continue to transfuse money? Why are the transfusions so huge and why do the transfusions seem to not be working? Is he still bleeding and the money is pouring through the system? If you try to compare previous expansions with this one on the same chart on the same scale, the differences are quite stark.
Dr. B: My theory is, and I admit not everyone will agree with it, is this: the patient is dead.
iTulip: Interesting. That does not bode well for the efficacy of future transfusions.
Dr. B: No it does not. They can keep the intravenous tube hooked up to a pint bottle or a 100 gallon drum of blood but it doesn’t matter if the blood is not circulating through the patient so he can to take it in.
iTulip: Controversial. I see why you are giving this to us on the sly. What evidence do you have to support this theory?
Dr. B: Note that many smaller banks that do not operate as part of the Fed system are working just fine.
iTulip: Go on.
Dr. B: The reason: Credit Default Swaps. It is now well understood that CDS are at the root of today’s financial crisis. Your readers have known that risk since 1999 when you first posted Someone Please Turn on the Lights. Some have suggested the simple expedient of canceling them all, declared all of the CDS contracts null and void.
iTulip: That will bring the dead patient back to life, assuming as you assert that he is dead?
Dr. B: CDS certainly killed him but removing them is no cure.
iTulip: Why not?
Dr. B: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report no. 276 “Credit Derivatives and Bank Credit Supply” by Beverly Hirtle, February 2007 concluded that all of the nation’s largest banks used credit default swaps not to protect existing assets but to expand their balance sheets between 1997 and 2006.
OAM 482 29-11-2008 23:30 (última actualização; 02-12-2008)