Quem disse que a crise acabou?!
A Auto-Europa pode mesmo fechar, no Outono ou no Inverno deste ano. Por isso anda José Sócrates que nem uma barata a falar de carros eléctricos! A partir de Agosto vamos assistir a novos e preocupantes sinais de que a crise veio para durar — talvez uns vinte anos!!
A crise e as eleições
01/07/09 00:03 | Vital Moreira — Os recentes indícios, tanto lá fora como internamente, de que a crise económica global pode ter passado o seu pior e que o início da recuperação pode estar próximo, é um dado novo que vai ter seguramente impacto nas eleições parlamentares de Setembro. — in Económico.
Governo: Optimismo face a indicadores divulgados pelo INE. Ministro decreta o fim da crise
“…como os indicadores têm vindo a acentuar, a crise está a atenuar-se” — Teixeira dos Santos, ministro das finanças de Portugal.
De acordo com os Inquéritos de Conjuntura às Empresas e aos Consumidores, ontem apresentados pelo INE, o indicador de clima económico aumentou nos últimos dois meses, interrompendo o acentuado movimento descendente que se registava desde Maio de 2008.
Segundo o INE, em Junho deste ano, os indicadores de confiança apresentaram uma evolução positiva na construção e obras públicas, comércio e serviços, e um ‘ligeiro abrandamento’ na indústria transformadora. O mesmo documento revela que o indicador de confiança dos consumidores ‘continuou o movimento ascendente iniciado em Abril’. — in Correio da Manhã (30-06-2009).
Alguns bons artigos (1) vêm desmontando a euforia artificial dos analistas a soldo, governos e sobretudo especuladores que não só foram incapazes de prever a crise provocada pelo gigantesco esquema piramidal (Ponzi) da especulação bolsista —nos mercados imobiliários, nas moedas (FOREX) e sobretudo nesse monumental e longe de ser abafado buraco negro conhecido por Mercado de Derivados (Derivatives) (2)—, como se afundaram nela em grandes e espectaculares mergulhos suicidas! Os casos dramáticos abundam e vão continuar a brotar do lamaçal em que o Capitalismo neoliberal se transformou.
A crise do até agora sub-avaliado endividamento excessivo norte-americano, japonês e europeu, que deu lugar a uma economia criminosa de casino —onde o declínio da produção material e a deterioração das balanças comerciais pariram uma economia virtual de liquidez aparente e globalização do crime económico—, está longe de ter chegado ao fim. De facto, apenas começou a revelar as suas ameaçadoras entranhas! O que aí vem será bem pior, e atormentará os países ocidentais pelo menos até 2020, ou mesmo 2030.
Endividados até ao tutano, os países desenvolvidos (EUA, União Europeia, Japão, etc.) dificilmente encontrarão o capital e as energias para proceder à —por sua vez inadiável— mudança dos paradigmas energético e social das suas economias. Foi este simples facto, e não as divergências manifestas entre as araras do governo debilmente socialista de José Sócrates e a actual liderança do PSD, que acabou com o TGV, o NAL da Ota em Alcochete e a Terceira Travessia sobre o Tejo. Mais, duvido até que as anunciadas novas autoestradas e as barragens assassinas da EDP (capitaneada pelo fátuo Mexia) cheguem a ver a luz do dia nas próximas décadas.
Dentro em breve os cofres do Estado português estarão vazios, e nenhum banqueiro, por mais corrupto que seja, ou serviçal a soldo da maioria de momento, se atreverá a emprestar um euro que seja a um país falido. Os spreads entre os juros negativos do BCE e os juros punitivos que os PIGS já estão a pagar por qualquer novo euro que entre em Portugal, Itália, Grécia e Espanha, tornar-se-ão rapidamente insuportáveis. Ou seja, a hiper-inflação vem a caminho e desaguará em breve nas nossas economias — ainda que sob um disfarce até agora desconhecido.
Adeus, portanto, grandes investimentos públicos cujo impacto dominante seja aumentar apenas e mais o nosso já descomunal endividamento. Adeus empresários chulos, adeus burguesia burocrática, adeus construtoras preguiçosas e cada vez mais inúteis ao futuro da economia portuguesa. Adeus José Sócrates. Cuidado PS!
Há dois ou três anos que insisto nesta tecla, mas só agora a prova provada começou a ganhar forma. Mais vale tarde que nunca.
A próxima bomba da actual crise irá começar a deflagrar a partir de Agosto e ao longo de todo o ano de 2010. Trata-se da quase inevitável crise social que o fim dos prazos de vigência dos subsídios de desemprego causará à já pré-catastrófica situação de desemprego e falta de emprego na generalidade dos países europeus. O Welfare State que tantos admiradores criou em todo o mundo está gravemente doente. Sobreviverá a esta crise?
Uma medida que vem sendo proposta e poderá tornar-se inevitável no futuro —como meio expedito de aliviar os estados europeus da pressão política explosiva exercida pelo colapso económico-financeiro e social em curso— é a criação em toda a Europa (aliás, em todo o Mundo!) de um Rendimento Pessoal Garantido (Basic Income), abrangendo todas as pessoas maiores de idade, sem emprego, desempregadas ou condenadas ao regime intolerável do trabalho temporário. Ou seja, é preciso, primeiro, estancar a hemorragia social. E só depois lançar novas estratégias de reestruturação das economias, i.e. dos seus sistemas de produção, troca e consumo.
- O pior já passou? Um “sim” ecoa afoito no mundo dos negócios
O endividamento em que vem se enredando os Estados Unidos e os outros países do centro e da periferia, na ilusão de assim driblarem a crise, é a bolha do momento. O que são as bolhas se não a geração de capital sem substância, seja pelo mercado, pelo Estado ou simultaneamente pelos dois pólos da sociedade da mercadoria? Isso mostra a impossibilidade do capitalismo em crise terminal desde os anos 80, sustentar-se sem produzir montanha de capital fictício. A expansão monetária global que ora assistimos para segurar a economia, à custa do endividamento dos estados e sem precedente na história do capitalismo, jamais será paga com parcelas de mais valia futura transformada em impostos.
…Quando o peso da dívida aumentar o risco de colapso dos estados sem condições fiscais de resolverem o problema do déficit orçamentário, as emissões fiduciárias continuam e a inflação surgirá galopante para infringir a sociedade, principalmente às populações desprotegidas, a fúria do “terceiro cavaleiro do apocalipse”. Por enquanto este se mantém a espreita, esperando o momento oportuno para cavalgar cuspindo fogo em todas as direções. — in Rumores da Crise.
Global systemic crisis in summer 2009 — the cumulative impact of three «rogue waves»
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 as early as October 2008, on the eve of summer 2009, the question of the US and UK capacity to finance their unbridled public deficits has become the central question of international debates, thus paving the way for these two countries to default on their debt by the end of this summer.
At this stage of the global systemic crisis’ process of development, contrary to the dominant political and media stance today, the LEAP/E2020 team does not foresee any economic upsurge after summer 2009 (nor in the following 12 months). On the contrary, because the origins of the crisis remain unaddressed, we estimate that the summer 2009 will be marked by the converging of three very destructive « rogue waves », illustrating the aggravation of the crisis and entailing major upheaval by September/October 2009. As always since this crisis started, each region of the world will be affected neither at the same moment, nor in the same way. However, according to our researchers, all of them will be concerned by a significant deterioration in their situation by the end of summer 20094.
This evolution is likely to catch large numbers of economic and financial players on the wrong foot who decided to believe in today’s mainstream media operation of “euphorisation”.
LEAP/E2020 believes that, instead of « green shoots » (those which international media, experts and the politicians who listen to them kept perceiving in every statistical chart6 in the past two months), what will appear on the horizon is a group of three destructive waves of the social and economic fabric expected to converge in the course of summer 2009, illustrating the aggravation of the crisis and entailing major changes by the end of summer 2009… more specifically, debt default events in the US and UK, both countries at the centre of the global system in crisis. These waves appear as follows: 1. Wave of massive unemployment: Three different dates of impact according to the countries in America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa 2. Wave of serial corporate bankruptcies: companies, banks, housing, states, counties, towns 3. Wave of terminal crisis for the US Dollar, US T-Bond and GBP, and the return of inflation. — in Global European Anticipation Bulletin/ GEAB.
John Mauldin’s Outside the Box on The Casey Report’s “A 20-Year Bear Market?”
A roughly 80 year cycle has been repeating itself for centuries in the Anglophile world, broken up into four generations or turnings. We have begun what Howe called many years ago The Fourth Turning. — John Maulding.
A 20-Year Bear Market? By David Galland, Casey Research
In November of 1997, my partner and co-editor of The Casey Report, Doug Casey, wrote an article titled “Foundations of Crisis,” which leaned heavily on the research of Neil Howe and the late William Strauss.
Howe and Strauss have written many books on how generations determine the course of history and how they will shape America’s future. Their forecasts on a wide variety of indicators have turned out to be amazingly accurate. They were among the first to predict (back in the late 1980s) the rise of Boomer-driven culture wars and the simultaneous rise of Gen-X-driven free agency and distrust of government. And they were completely alone back then in predicting, for the post-X “Millennial Generation” (a label they coined), a decline in youth crime and risk taking and an increase in youth civic engagement that would first become apparent around the year 2000. Guess what? For the last ten years, everyone has been noticing exactly these trends among teens and 20somethings.
Howe and Strauss also made extensive predictions, based on generational aging, on how America’s entire social mood would likely change, in dramatic fashion, during our current 2000-2010 decade. To quote Doug’s prescient 1997 article, which was reprinted in Outside the Box late last year…
“… an excellent case can be made the U.S. is approaching another time of secular crisis, a Fourth Turning, with an expected due date of 2005 – seven years from now – plus or minus a few years in either direction.
The Stamp Acts catalyzed the American Revolution, the election of Lincoln catalyzed the Civil War, the Crash of ’29 catalyzed the Depression/WW II era. What might precipitate the elements now floating in solution? The answer is practically any random event that’s sufficiently traumatic. Any of the theses of current disaster/action novels and movies will do nicely. Perhaps the accidental or intentional release of a super plague vector. The crashing of an airliner into the Capitol during a joint session. An all-out assault on the IRS computers by an armed group – or perhaps the computers just melting down due to the Year 2000 Problem. Perhaps a financial disaster that cascades into the Greater Depression. In any of these, or a hundred other scenarios, the federal government would almost certainly act precipitously and with a heavy hand, which would bring on a whole other set of consequences.
There’s no way of telling where the Crisis will lead, or how it will end. That’s going to depend not only on exactly who’s in control, but what they do, who they’re up against, and a hundred other variables we can’t even anticipate.
One thing that seems certain is that real crisis brings out strong leadership. Because of its age and size, it will come from the Boomer generation, and it will be in the mold of Roosevelt or Lincoln – both very dangerous precedents. The boomers in elderhood will be dogmatic, harsh, puritanical, and quite willing to burn down the barn in order to destroy whatever rats they see. Admix that attitude to a time resembling the Revolution, the Civil War, or WW II, overlain with today’s ethnic strife, urbanization, financial overextension, and powerful, compact new weaponry in the hands of foreign fanatics out to teach the Great Satan a lesson and it’s a real witch’s brew.
As eye-opening as Doug’s predictions were, they brought us only to the onset of the current crisis. Consequently, we thought it both timely and important to check back with the source of much of the research he relied on. And so it was that I spent several hours talking with Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal work on generational cycles, The Fourth Turning, and, just recently, the subject of the DVD “The Winter of History.” Howe is not just an historian, but also a Washington DC-based economist and demographer. While our conversation covered a great many topics, the overriding focus was on how things are likely to unfold from here.
Many bullish readers won’t be thrilled to hear Howe’s latest findings about the future, but given his predictive track record, dismissing them out of hand could be a costly mistake.
The summary outlook, according to Howe, is that we are in the very early stages of a 20-year period of economic and institutional upheaval – an era denominated by a crisis during which we’ll likely witness the tearing down and reconstruction of many aspects of society as we know it. — in John Mauldin’s Outside the Box.
Green Shoots or Green Observers? By Ann Pettifor.
(…) The latest cliché off the economic jargon production line is “Green Shoots of Recovery”. With governments having laid liberal amounts of fertiliser – in the forms of handouts, budget deficits, slashed interest rates and “quantitative easing” (another new piece of jargon for giving good money to bad lenders in return for bad assets) – they now report signs of economic recovery sprouting like alfalfa everywhere. — in Debtonation.
No, the Recession is Not Over. By Ann Pettifor – 11th June 2009 – For the Guardian Online.
A banker, Alan Clarke of BNP Paribas, citing a NIESR report, confidently tells the Guardian that the recession is over. Should we take the word of any banker – especially one that claims to be an economist – seriously?
Given that the economics profession was blind-sided by the ‘debtonation’ of 9th August, 2007, I am deeply sceptical. Second, given that this is a banker-induced recession; that reckless and often fraudulent behaviour by bankers led to a loss of $60 trillion of yours and my wealth (in the form of pensions, equities, lost interest on savings, and lost income from job losses) last year, should we believe a banker’s particular spin on the crisis?
(…) So, while it must be accepted that the economy seems to have slowed its freefall into the abyss; that there are now fewer jobs to lose and fewer businesses to go bust – there is no real cause for confidence in sustained, or even halting recovery. The real economic outlook remains grim.
All G-7 economies will report negative growth in 2009 for the first time in 100 years, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Senior Vice-president, Dr. Daniel Thorniley in a report to the EIU’s corporate network.
(…) Foreign direct investment could fall globally by 45% this year, according to the same report, and corporate profits will decline by 20-25%. Global trade is down 25%, and the EIU predicts trade will be down by 10-15% by year end – the worst figure since 1945. — in Debtonation.
Ignore the scaremongers… Watch out for the truly scary. By Ann Pettifor — 9th June 2009.
(…) First: 23.6 million Americans out of work, or forced into part-time work. That is truly scary. 23.6 million Americans short of cash, unable to pay off debts; and unable to finance mortgages. 23.6 million Americans citizens that do not participate in the nation’s economic life, and are disillusioned and angry. Many will be devastated, prepared to self-medicate with alcohol or drugs, and many thousands will act out their rage and humiliation. These citizens do not pose a threat just to themselves, to their families and to society. They also pose a threat to the finance sector — because they will default on debts. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s report of record increases in delinquencies and foreclosures by those with prime mortgages is but one example of the impact of unemployment on the banks. To all those bankers celebrating their taxpayer-funded profits that must be truly scary.
Second: a 40% rise in business bankruptcy filings in May. Small, medium and large businesses destroyed, economic capacity wasted, hopes destroyed, jobs lost. That’s scary.
Third: a collapse in investment in the first quarter of 2009. According to Global Insight “real spending on equipment and software plummeted 33.8%, the largest percentage drop since the first quarter of 1958.” Green shoots when investment plummets furthest in 50 years? Without investment, there is no future for new economic activity, for green technology, for an end to job losses — for economic hope. — in Debtonation.
Talk to the Fabian Forum: The Global Financial Crisis: How bad will it get? By Steve Keen. Debtwatch, Money dynamics, RBA. Published in April 13th, 2009.
Eurozone Meltdown – Eight Scenarios how the unthinkable might happen. Euro Intelligence, Briefing Note Nº1, 3, April 2009.
We have long dismissed the probability of a breakup of the euro area as idle talk among the chattering classes and speculators. Anyone who would have placed a bet on this proposition would have lost heavily during the first ten years of the euro’s existence. The financial crisis and the way European governments responded to it have changed the odds in our view. We still believe a breakup of the euro area to be unlikely, but the probability is no longer trivial. This is still true after the stock market rally in March 2009 and the ensuing temporary fall in risk aversion among investors. The danger is not over. The aim of this briefing note is to assess this probability in some detail.
A Tale of Two Depressions
… the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30. — in Voxeau.
- The $700 trillion elephant. By Thomas Kostigen. MarketWatch. Published in March 6, 2009.
SANTA MONICA, Calif. (MarketWatch) — There’s a $700 trillion elephant in the room and it’s time we found out how much it really weighs on the economy.
Derivative contracts total about three-quarters of a quadrillion dollars in “notional” amounts, according to the Bank for International Settlements. These contracts are tallied in notional values because no one really can say how much they are worth.
Banks brace for derivatives ‘big bang’
Credit default swap dealers are cleaning up a dark corner of the derivatives market, but the risk of a blowup remains. By Colin Barr, senior writer. Last Updated: April 8, 2009: 3:45 AM ET (CNNMoney.com)
U.S. commercial banks’ net current credit exposure — a measure used by regulators to estimate possible losses on outstanding derivatives contracts — more than doubled last year, to $800 billion, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said last month. Total credit exposure, which reflects how derivatives exposure could rise over time, hit $1.58 trillion – up 50% from 2007 levels and in line with the 2006 all-time high.
OAM 596 01-07-2009 18:00